I’m going to make a political prediction here.
There was a huge sweeping in the latest election, yet despite that “The Mutiny on the Boner”, John Boehner was re-elected as speaker.
Couple that with Romney likely running again, and Christie and Bush for some strange reason still polling well, and giving Scott Brown the time of day, I don’t see the GOP surviving the 2016 election.
Further like Romney’s last run, RINOs are good for suppressing GOP turnout, so we’ll loose seats in the house and senate from right-leaning voters staying home.
Now the media is still talking about Hillary Clinton, but let’s face it, nobody likes her. She’s too much of a war-loving “Conservative” to the left, and too much of a commie for the right. The Left will likely nominate Elizabeth Warren as the 2016 nominee. She has a non-existent resume, she’s big on the “Progressive” talking points, and she’s all Hopey-changey. Plus while Hillary is having a hard time winning over people’s hearts, the fake-indian seems to be making HUGE strides with the “Progressives”.
Who does that sound like to you? Plus she won’t have any of the baggage President Obama did in 2012…where he won against what will be the same song-and-dance from the GOP.
Right here, right now, I can’t call it any other way….
+1 on everything you said…..
You are most likely correct, especially since they will have had most of 2 years to play ‘blame the Republicans’ – that has worked extremely well in the past. The only flaw I can see for now is that you are ‘assuming’ there will even be an election…………;-(
Nah, there will be nobody more happy to leave office in 2017 than Barack Obama. He stroked his ego well, getting the highest office for the maximum number of terms. Getting a law with his name on it passed without ever having to lift a finger, and while having legitimate threats of impeachment thrown about, he won’t be impeached either.
Nope, it’ll all be golf, comped rooms and meals, and seven-figure speaking arrangements, maybe Bill Ayers will even write another book for him.
And the growing Tea-party/libertarian (small-l) movement will still be treated by the GOP (as someone else put it) like the wife of an abusive husband, who’s told, “Where else you gonna go? No one else gonna take you in!”
Until we can buck the two-party system and/or the establishment GOP, real conservatives will not get a fair shake.
I doubt we’ll ever have a full 3 party system #1. It’s never happened before despite several changes in the party opposite the Democrats, and #2 with three parties you run a very high risk of the majority winner NOT having a plurality. A small scale of this was Bush in 2000, but that was a minor spread, and possibly untrue, but on the state level where 3rd parties are easier to get off the ground, you can have some MASSIVE spreads between the elected official and the number of people who voted AGAINST them. IMHO this verges on a breakdown of the representative system, and would have the same effect if we dumped the electoral college. In 3+ parties all somebody needs to do is appropriately rally their base, and make ZERO effort to cross the aisle and appeal to swing voters…plus the more parties you have the less swing voters there are. Without the electoral college all a candidate would need to do is carry several major cities, and they win. No need to set foot in places like Iowa or South Dakota, Maine, or New Hampshire. Also no need to set foot in Northern Florida or California, or Upstate New York, Just Carry the LA Metroplex, Miami, and NYC and maybe a few other larger cities and you won….and those places almost always run “Progressive”.
So yeah, what I see happening is the old guard dying, and either an insurrection like when the Whigs got usurped by the Republicans (in this case it would most likely be The Libertarian Party, and most of the younger Republicans, and “Yellow Dog” Democrats would change parties, and the old guard republicans would quickly get voted out of office, bringing the GOP to an end) or more likely it will just be the newer crop of liberty-minded Republicans will slowly change the platform of the party. The speed of this will completely depend on how high an office some of the 2.0 type leaders ascend to, and the plurality within the party they represent.
Of course the 2nd Scenario is the most likely, and the most fragile, as there was a big platform shift when Reagan took office….but it wore off pretty quick, potentially because of how H.W. Bush compared to his old boss.
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