I’m rolling this idea around in my head. Right now we have a damn similar version of George W. Bush circa 2004. Incompetent, unpopular, and has the entire Authoritarian Playset rolled out on his bed and he’s goin’ to town, expanding government waging wars (just Bush bragged about expanding wars, Obama brags about ending wars…while expanding them).
Now the Republicans are doing their part for the 2004 story too. They’re fielding wildly unpopular and incompetent candidates. Weather it be Romney, Gingrich, or Santorum, all of them will look like John Forbes Kerry and I suspect most voters will either vote for the Devil they Know, or simply stay home.
But with Romney as the “Front Runner” but losing as many contests as he’s winning, and his popularity in the toilet, and Santorum, who hasn’t been taken seriously ever until now as his main rival, I’m starting to smell a little of 2008 in here too.
Until Obama broke into the lead (and say what you will about him as a President, or as a person, he DID run a competent Campaign AND had the Media on his side, those are two factors wildly absent from the Republican Line-up), it isn’t unrealistic to see a Brokered Convention this year.
Now that’s what the Democrats feared in 2008, for the same reason the Republicans should fear it now. It means no clear winner, and no good options. It’ll mean lots of in-fighting, while the Media grinds the front-runners to pulp.
Now if there WERE to be a brokered convention, how much do you think this would add to a 3rd party candidate? Would a Libertarian or an Independent have a decent shot?
Also say the 3rd Party was a Small-Government Wookie-Suit-type that made a good effort to court the Tea Party people and their sympathetics. How would congress view the 3rd Party?
I’ve seen Independents first hand in State government and its a disaster, they literally are the kid with no friends, and everything they attempt to do is scuttled by both sides….but the States always have the Federal parties over them…if the President was a 3rd Party what would happen to the GOP? Would they remain solid and fight the 3rd party as if they were a re-elected Obama, or would there be a massive defection?
A third question is a historical one that maybe somebody can answer. Obviously Abraham Lincoln was the first Republican President, but what was the US House and Senate like at the time, as well as State Government. I know after he was elected and the South Defected the Whig party which was as pro-slavery as the Democrats got consumed by people switching to the then Liberal and radical Republican Party, but were there mostly Whigs and Democrats when Lincoln was elected, or were there a bunch of smaller Republican wandering around in various elected offices?
But of course back then when parties changed Ideology they changed names. Never once did the Conservative Party that Owns Black People decide to change their name when they switched to the Radical Party that loves Marks (and owns the votes of Black people by keeping them poor and dependent).
Just a bunch of ideas rattling around, what do y’all make of it?
**UPDATE** I really like a lot what’s said here, and why I’m really rooting for a Republican loss in 2012 of any kind:
Interesting set of ‘possibilities’ there Weerd 🙂
“…or would there be a massive defection?”
I’d predict a large defection among junior members who have yet to reap the personal benefits of GOP Big Money; their incomes are still largely dependent on the goodwill of their constituents. It wouldn’t be big enough to topple the power structure, but it would probably make some inroads and gain a foothold.
Well, in no particular order: The election of 1860 was actually a 4 way race. There was the Republican, the Whigs, and 2 different Democratic Parties, Northern and Southern. The Democratic Ticket was such a mess that some States had both Candidates, others had one, etc. The Whigs had become as relevant as the dog poop on the sidewalk. But the Southern Faction was so worried about Lincoln, that after the election, the Succession Process started. In other words, they were afraid that Lincoln might actually have enough Votes when he took office in March that he could make a dent into Slavery. But James Buchanan, a Northern Democrat, did nothing to stop it during his Lame Duck time. So when Lincoln was actually sworn in most of the Confederacy had already left the Union. As for Congress, most of the Southern Demacrats had already left DC, so there you go.
Now to 3rd parties. Forget it. Stop Dreaming. Ain’t gonna happen. Why? Not enough Votes to win. Best showing was Perot in ’92, 19.7 million popular votes, 0 Electoral. Bush the Elder, 39.1 million, 168 Electoral. Clinton 44.9 million, 379 Electoral. Most Honest Historians say that if Bush hadn’t raised Taxes after promising not to, and Perot had stayed home, he would have had a second term. Flash Forward to 2000. Bush the Younger, 50.4 million. 271 Electoral. Algore, 51 million, 266 Electoral. Nader 2.8 million, 0 Electoral. Again, most Honest Historians agree that if Nader had stayed home, Algore would have been President on 9/11. Why? Does anyone think that 2.8 million Treehuggers would have voted for Bush the Younger? Flash Forward to Today. Maybe 25% of the current House can be declared Tea Party, and the House Leadership wants them in the back of the Bus so bad that they’ll cut deals with the Democrats to keep them there. And forget the Senate. Too Many RINOS from NEW ENGLAND (what’s WRONG with you guys up there?).
Now to November. No 3rd Party Wookie Suiter can Win the Presidency. Not enough Votes, either Popular or Electoral. But the Wookie will siphon votes away from the Republican Nominee. Why? The Answer lies in the Polls for all to see. Just look at any question over the last 20 years that the Marxist/Progressive/Socialist/Kill the Jews/Anti-Freedom side of the country likes, and you’ll see it runs about 25-30%. That is Obama’s Base, and he has those Votes Locked up. Now let’s look at all the Eligible Voters who don’t vote. Runs around 50%. So Obama has around 25-30 million Votes waiting for him in November, and a LOT of the All Important Electoral College Votes also. Republicans probably have about the same. So both sides are looking at winning the Hearts and Minds of about 30 million “Moderates/Independents.” Throw in the Wookie, and that number drops. But no Wookie can get the 50% and the Electoral Votes needed because they are already sewn up by the Dems and the Repubs. The Wookie can only get maybe 40% at BEST. The numbers just aren’t there, and they won’t be there unless it’s something like a Pro/Anti Slavery issue, and the country just doesn’t have that going.
However, I will say that the Obama Admin and their Cronies will pull every dirty Trick they can to ensure that they stay in Power. ACORN, MSM attacks, Ballot Box Stuffing, various States declaring Winners in spite of Voter Tampering, New Black Panther Voter Intimidation, etc. THEY ARE DOING IT ALREADY. Look at Holder going after the Photo ID for Voting, even though the Supreme Court ruled years ago in Indiana that it’s perfectly Constitutional. And they’ll be more to follow. Come November, I think we’ll be wishing for the days of “Hanging Chads”.
So here’s your choices. You can Vote for Obama. You can Vote for the Republican. You can Vote for the Wookie, which will siphon Votes away from the Republican, thus you are Voting For Obama. You can Stay Home, which gives your absent Vote the Power to re-elect Obama. Or you can die before the Election, and not have to worry about it (but I don’t recommend it). But Obama has enough Votes to win if the Wookie Runs, and he knows it.
YMMV, of course.
Thanks for all the info on the 1860, I’d forgotten about the Southern Democrat Party.
And in November I’ll be voting for the Wookie knowing what it’ll get me.
No wookie, I’ll vote for the idiot, because I know he’ll make speeches and go on vacation, and allow his cabinet and Czars commit open felonies.
The GOP-Tards we have here might actually pass laws, and with a Republican house, and who-knows with the Senate, they’ll actually PASS stuff.
It’ll be Bush’s 1st Term all over again. Thanks but no-thanks!
(Oh and The Democrats will have a setup for another big win against a weak and unpopular Republican President in 2016, and 2022, the GOP will Field another George W. Bush esqe candidate. At least with an Obama 2nd Term there’s a CHANCE to correct this)
On the subject of Ross Perot, I disagree a little. Bubblehead Les’s numbers are correct for the day of the election, but let’s remember that during the summer, Perot was about even with the other two in opinion polls. Then he had a meltdown, got out of the race, got back in the race, and won nineteen percent. If he’d been sane, there’s a good chance that he’d have been president.
My primary concern for a second Obama term is the number of Supreme Court justices who are over the age limit to be a BoxMart greeter. Heller and McDonald were both five to four decisions.