You gotta wonder with a story like this:
The new estimate shows that polar melting contributed about one-fifth of the overall global sea level rise since 1992; other factors include warming that causes the seawater to expand.
The study does not seek to forecast future change.
Supported by US and European space agencies Nasa and Esa, the research brought together data from satellites measuring the surface altitude, the flow of the glaciers and the gravitational effect of the ice mass to produce the first joint assessment of how the ice sheets are changing….The study’s headline conclusion is that the polar ice sheets have overall contributed 11.1mm to sea level rise but with a “give or take” uncertainty of 3.8mm – meaning the contribution could be as little as 7.3mm or as much as 14.9mm
The combined rate of melting from all the ice sheets has increased over the past 20 years with Greenland losing five times as much now as in 1992.
I wonder about that 3.8mm error number, I mean Hurricane Sandy made the tide rise between 8-11 feet HIGHER than normal. That’s a massive low pressure system and a massive surge, but think of how little it would take to account for 4mm of ocean difference. When the Earthquake hit Costa Rica there were a ton of landslides and cliff faces that fell into the ocean. Hell it makes me wonder how stable the Moon’s orbit is, when it comes to planetoids 4mm is a rounding error.
I know a bunch of people who are dieting who weigh themselves every day and will get excited or depressed over a half-pound change in the numbers. But the human body fluctuates so much with food and water weights that even a pound or two can fluctuate in a day. I personally only call victory or defeat in increments of 5lbs. If I gain or lose 5lbs from a previous weight that’s from my total body mass, not my blood volume or gut-contents.
Still in the end, even if they’re right the best they can claim is 14.9mm in sea level change in 20 years time. Here’s a fun exercise. Pretend an Alien Stealth Craft sneaks into the Pacific ocean and dumps its cargo undetected into the sea. Whatever this may be, its enough to raise the sea level TWENTY millimeters! TWO WHOLE CENTIMETERS! ALMOST AN INCH!!!
How long do you think it will take people to figure out that it happened?