Sebastian is musing about if HR 822 gets to President Obama’s desk.
Sebastian thinks the President will veto so he doesn’t upset his core voters.
I might disagree. The big proponents of gun control are inner city minorities who confuse gang violence with legal gun ownership, and the Wealthy White Liberal Ivory Tower types who support gun control because they’re pointy-headed idealists 100% divorced from reality.
The people who actually actively support gun control is a VERY small number, and it would appear that while in the 90s the anti-gun movement was so powerful that the Brady Campaign chose a Republican Paul Helmke to helm their operation to help garner bi-partisan support for a movement born from the far left…support these days is again from the far-left.
These people may chose to hate President Obama, but will it be enugh to get them to vote for a Republican candidate? Living in Massachusetts, and being born in Southern Maine I know a LOT of these ultra-liberals. The answer is “No”, “Democrat” is their team, and they will not question the party.
Also of the more moderate base, how many of those people really care about gun laws? Sure they might answer a survey saying we should ban “cop killer bullets” or handguns, or “assault Weapons” or ban various forms of carry, but would Obama signing national reciprocity into law really get their butts off the couch? Especially with Obama’s record on Gays, Food stamps, unemployment benefits, and Healthcare? I don’t think they’d notice.
Now here’s where things get scary. Right now the GOP front-runners by a wide margin are Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Herman Cain. Now Cain is the dude I like the most of that Rag-Tag crew, but he’s not a politician, so he has no record on guns, and frankly many of his talking points are whishy-washy. Gingrich was last in power with the Antis were kicking our ass. Also my #1 reason for disliking him is I see him as a symbol of the old-guard Republicans, The big-government anti-rights daddy-state types. I’m sure his fingerprints are on all sorts of gun control laws, and that can be spun either way. Romney is solidly ANTI-Gun, and has a solid record making life for gun owners in Massachusetts worse.
So here’s a hypothetical: President Obama signs a law that means your carry permit in your home state is valid in every state that honors a carry permit, and he’s running for a Second term against one of these Second Amendment lightweights, or an honest-to-God Gun Banner (Romney). Also add in the Obama’s signature is on the bills allowing checked guns on Amtrack, and guns in national parks.
Now its likely that Fast and Furious was a government plot to push a national gun ban…but can we prove it? Also Can we Prove that President Obama had knowledge of both the program AND its intent?
So given all of those factors, who does the NRA endorse for the 2012 Presidential election?
Of course Sebastian may be right and HR 822 may be vetoed by the President which will certainly eliminate all curve balls….but I dunno, a scary game could be played here.
If the NRA endorses the weak or anti-gun Republican over a Democrat President with a strong pro-gun political record, they could be called out like GOA is these days, as a Republican shill false Flag, if they support President Obama they’ll look confused because they have spent so much time and effort talking out against him.
If they sit it out, they’re on the bench and they lose a lot of political relevance….
What do you think?
There’s a picture in the American Rifleman from a couple of years ago that shows the NRA Leadership standing next to Harry Reid at the Opening of their new Gun Range in Nevada, and the praise heaped upon him was Knee deep. Add in the fact that the NRA just supported DEFEATING an Amendment that would have forced Illinois to accept Out-of-State CHP’s “…because the NRA wants a CLEAN Bill to go through the Congress”, and I think this might clarify where the NRA will throw their support.
The NRA isn’t going to endorse Obama because they know he only signed those bills because they were part of larger packages and would allow him to passively take credit for being progun. His selections for Supreme Court sealed his fate, and I think the NRA knows too well that gun owners can achieve legislative victories with or without Obama’s help, either by tacking them on to “must pass” bills or concentrating on state laws. They can wait for a pro gun president. The key right now is to focus on judicial victories, and I’d be willing to bet the NRA is cognizant of that fact.
When IL was electing a new senator, the choice was between anti gun Mark Kirk and anti gun Alexi Giannoulis (sp?). When I got my NRA endorsements it simply said something to the effect of “we recommend you vote third party.” I imagine the same would hold true for a Romney vs. Obama lineup.
I predict Cain will decline in the polls due to his poor handling of the recent unpleasantness, while I heard this morning on the radio that Newt was gaining favor. Newt will probably profess a solid pro gun platform, and would likely follow through (in my opinion) if elected. Romney would probably sing his tired old “States’ Rights” jingle, and no one but country club Republicrats would believe him (not that they’d care). I imagine Romney would behave similar to Obama: no open pro gun support, no overt hosility, maybe pass a law that was part of an omnibus bill so he could passively take credit. But as for his Supreme Court nominations? Who knows.
The people who actually actively support gun control is a VERY small number…
I think Sebastian’s point is that the very small number in question includes the people who run the political machines in the urban liberal strongholds, and President Obama will need the help of the Bloombergs and the Rahm Emanuels to direct the vote-generating power of those machines.
Those guys aren’t going to turn Republican over this, but they’re a bunch of spoiled children accustomed to stomping their feet and being obeyed. Right now they’re throwing a tantrum, screaming “no, you peasants will _not_ carry guns in our cities, because we _said_ so!” If the President signs a bill forcing them to respect the right they want to deny, there’s a good chance they’ll take it personally and be less willing to help him in the election. And if there’s one thing a hardcore Illinois Democrat knows, it’s the importance of sucking up to the right people.
Frankly, as much as I want my Maine permit to be good everywhere except Jersey and Illinois, I kind of hope the President vetoes HR822. It stands to weaken his reelection bid, and that may do much more good for gun rights in the long run than wining this issue at this time.
Good analysis Weerd. We just have to remember that a politicians job is to get re-elected (setting aside the ideal that their job SHOULD be to serve their constituents). Romney is a perfect example, so is Newt. Many polticians will half heartedly support gun rights to secure election, then turn around and be wishy washy with their votes. I believe it is often because politicians of any flavor realize the gun rights and ownership represents a threat to their ability to exercise authority and control over those they “govern”.
Lets hope that whatever happens with National Reciprocity, that the next election wont weaken gun rights in the long run.
The NRA shouldn’t be endorsing any candidate.
Moot Point.
It won’t make it out of the Senate. No way will enough Democrats vote for cloture to overcome the inevitable filibuster. The Dem leadership are virulently anti-gun so there’s no way they’ll let it go without a filibuster. The “blue dog” dems in the Senate will see the issue as controversial enough not to hurt them, so they’ll claim that although they strongly support the Second Amendment blah blah blah…States Rights issue blah blah blah…and stick to the party line.
If, by some freak of nature, it ends up making it out of the Senate and to his desk:
He won’t sign it.
Period.
Of course, if it gets enough votes to make it out of the Senate, there is an outside chance that it could get enough votes to overcome a veto.
But I’m not holding my breath.
Interesting idea. You are one scary smart dude.